Ensemble modeling of Pinus cembroides Zucc. distribution under future CMIP6 climate scenarios in northern Mexico

doi:10.3832/ifor4880-018

Ensemble modeling of Pinus cembroides Zucc. distribution under future CMIP6 climate scenarios in northern Mexico

Julio Nemorio Martínez-Sánchez⁽¹⁾, Tereza Cavazos⁽²⁾, Homero Gárate-Escamilla⁽¹⁾, Manuel De Luna⁽¹⁾, Gerardo Cuéllar-Rodríguez⁽¹⁾

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 19, Issue 1, Pages 1-8 (2026)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor4880-018
Published: Jan 10, 2026 - Copyright © 2026 SISEF

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This study employed ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) using the “biomod2” package and different General Circulation Models (GCMs) to assess the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Pinus cembroides in Mexico. Using presence and pseudo-absence data, along with bioclimatic variables from CHELSA v2.1, future habitat suitability was projected for the near future (2041-2060) and far future (2061-2080) under two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Our results predict that under future climate conditions, P. cembroides will likely undergo substantial range contractions, with losses of approximately 65%-85% of the current suitable habitat and no colonization of novel areas. Temperature-related predictors, particularly Bio8 (mean temperature of the wettest quarter) and Bio9 (mean temperature of the driest quarter) were identified as the primary drivers of the species’ distribution. These results suggest that under warming scenarios, P. cembroides will be confined to high elevation refugia, thereby increasing fragmentation and reducing its adaptive capacity. Overall, our findings provide a critical baseline for adaptive forest management strategies, such as assisted migration and the conservation of high elevation refugia, to mitigate the impacts of climate change on P. cembroides.

Keywords

Biomod2, CHELSA, CMIP6, Pinus cembroides, Potential Distribution

Authors’ address

(1)

0000-0003-3559-1958
0000-0003-2060-1463
0000-0002-0746-0507
0000-0003-4969-611x
Dept. de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Carretera a Cd. Victoria km 145, 67700 Linares (México)

(2)

0000-0003-3097-9021
Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada (México)

Corresponding author

Gerardo Cuéllar-Rodríguez
luis.cuellarrd@uanl.edu.mx

Citation

Martínez-Sánchez JN, Cavazos T, Gárate-Escamilla H, De Luna M, Cuéllar-Rodríguez G (2026). Ensemble modeling of Pinus cembroides Zucc. distribution under future CMIP6 climate scenarios in northern Mexico. iForest 19: 1-8. - doi: 10.3832/ifor4880-018

Academic Editor

Maurizio Marchi

Paper history

Received: Apr 14, 2025
Accepted: Sep 02, 2025

First online: Jan 10, 2026
Publication Date: Feb 28, 2026
Publication Time: 4.33 months

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This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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