Potential natural vegetation pattern based on major tree distribution modeling in the western Rif of Morocco

doi:10.3832/ifor4602-017

Potential natural vegetation pattern based on major tree distribution modeling in the western Rif of Morocco

Abdelilah Ghallab^(1-2) , Hamid Boubekraoui^(1-3), Said Laaribya⁽⁴⁾, Mariem Ben-Said⁽²⁾

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 17, Issue 6, Pages 405-416 (2024)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor4602-017
Published: Dec 22, 2024 - Copyright © 2024 SISEF

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In a fragile ecological environment, understanding the potential spatial distribution of species and the underlying environmental conditions is crucial for resolving ecosystem management issues and predicting impacts of global change. This study aimed to determine the potential distribution of fourteen major Mediterranean taxa (seven conifers and seven broadleaves) native to northwestern Morocco using the Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt). Subsequently, a Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) map model was generated for the study area based on the species with the highest probability of occurrence. MaxEnt demonstrated high predictive power for all studied taxa, exhibiting high accuracy for conifers and deciduous trees, especially those with endemic characteristics and/or specialized habitats. Climatic variables (i.e., mean annual temperature, maximum temperature of the hottest month, mean annual precipitation, and minimum temperature of the coldest month) significantly contributed to the species distribution models. The potential distribution areas of all species were larger than their current areas, indicating the impact of deforestation, particularly in plains and mid-mountains. Relict species such as Abies marocana, Cedrus atlantica, and Pinus mauretanica, are confined to the coldest annual temperature range with very limited ranges (i.e., 1.7°C, 2.6°C, and 1.5°C, respectively), making them extremely vulnerable to global warming. The PNV model demonstrated good reliability (K = 0.67). This is the first application of this approach in the region, providing insights for reforestation and ecosystem rehabilitation efforts in Morocco, with potential applicability to other regions.

Keywords

Species Distribution Models, Maxent, Environmental Predictors, Conservation, Restoration, Mediterranean Trees, Western Rif

Authors’ address

(1)

0000-0002-0024-9100
0000-0001-7371-6809
Regional Directorate of the National Agency for Water and Forests Tangier-Tetouan Al Hoceima, Tetouan (Morocco)

(2)

0000-0002-0024-9100
0000-0002-5171-0542
Laboratory of Biology, Ecology & Health, Faculty of Sciences, Abdelmalek Essadi University, Tetouan (Morocco)

(3)

0000-0001-7371-6809
Biology, Environment, and Sustainable Development Laboratory, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tetouan (Morocco)

(4)

0000-0003-3864-0612
Laboratory of Territories, Environment, and Development, Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra (Morocco)

Corresponding author

Abdelilah Ghallab
ghallababdelilah@gmail.com

Citation

Ghallab A, Boubekraoui H, Laaribya S, Ben-Said M (2024). Potential natural vegetation pattern based on major tree distribution modeling in the western Rif of Morocco. iForest 17: 405-416. - doi: 10.3832/ifor4602-017

Academic Editor

Maurizio Marchi

Paper history

Received: Mar 14, 2024
Accepted: Oct 03, 2024

First online: Dec 22, 2024
Publication Date: Dec 31, 2024
Publication Time: 2.67 months

Open Access

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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