Estimating the distribution characters of Larix kaempferi in response to climate change

doi:10.3832/ifor3570-013

Estimating the distribution characters of Larix kaempferi in response to climate change

Chunyan Wu^(1-2), Jiapeng Shen^(1-2), Dongsheng Chen^(1-2), Chaoqun Du⁽³⁾, Xiaomei Sun^(1-2), Shougong Zhang^(1-2)

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 13, Issue 6, Pages 499-506 (2020)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3570-013
Published: Nov 01, 2020 - Copyright © 2020 SISEF

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A better understanding of the distribution of suitable habitats of Larix kaempferi and its environmental constraints is crucial to know how global climate change will affect its growth and future dynamics. We simulated global suitable distribution areas of L. kaempferi under current and future climates, using different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, to evaluate the main factors affecting its geographical distribution. The results showed that under current climate conditions the suitable distribution areas of L. kaempferi are concentrated in Europe and Asia, followed by North America. The “Germany-Sweden-Britain” (19.42% of the total worldwide area) and “China-Japan-North Korea” (43.11%) regions are the cores for L. kaempferi distribution. The suitable distribution area for L. kaempferi is large in China (33.75% of the total area). The suitable distribution areas in Asia, Europe, and China decreased and shifted northward in the RCP scenarios. The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of L. kaempferi were the annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual mean precipitation, and precipitation in the driest month. L. kaempferi could adapt or move to higher latitudes/altitudes to cope with climate change. Our results contribute to the introduction, cultivation, and management of L. kaempferi and potentially of other deciduous gymnosperms.

Keywords

Suitable Distribution Areas, Maxent Model, Environmental Variable, RCPs, Cultivation and Management

Authors’ address

(1)

0000-0001-9821-6341

0000-0002-2135-8381

0000-0001-9832-2558
State Key Laboratory of Tree Genetics and Breeding, Key Laboratory of Tree Breeding and Cultivation of the State Forestry Administration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091 (China)

(2)

0000-0001-9821-6341

0000-0002-2135-8381

0000-0001-9832-2558
Research Institute of Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091 (China)

(3)

Hubei Academy of Forestry, Wuhan, Hubei 430075 (China)

Corresponding author

Shougong Zhang
593408754@qq.com

Citation

Wu C, Shen J, Chen D, Du C, Sun X, Zhang S (2020). Estimating the distribution characters of Larix kaempferi in response to climate change. iForest 13: 499-506. - doi: 10.3832/ifor3570-013

Academic Editor

Maurizio Marchi

Paper history

Received: Jul 05, 2020
Accepted: Aug 18, 2020

First online: Nov 01, 2020
Publication Date: Dec 31, 2020
Publication Time: 2.50 months

Open Access

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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