Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey
Ertugrul Bilgili (1), Kadir Alperen Coskuner (1), Yetkin Usta (1) , Bulent Saglam (2), Omer Kucuk (3), Tolga Berber (4), Merih Goltas (5)
iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 12, Issue 3, Pages 262-271 (2019)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor2870-012
Published: May 03, 2019 - Copyright © 2019 SISEF
Research Articles
Abstract
This study presents a dynamic model for the prediction of diurnal changes in the moisture content of dead surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine stands under varying weather conditions. The model was developed based on several empirical relationships between moisture contents of dead surface fuels and weather variables, and calibrated using field data collected from three Calabrian stands from three different regions of Turkey (Mugla, southwest; Antalya, south; Trabzon, north-east). The model was tested and validated with independent measurements of fuel moisture from two sets of field observations made during dry and rainy periods. Model predictions showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.19% for litter and 0.90% for duff at Mugla, and 3.62% for litter and 14.38% for duff at Antalya. When two rainy periods were excluded from the analysis at Antalya site, the MAE decreased from 14.38% to 4.29% and R2 increased from 0.25 to 0.83 for duff fuels. Graphical inspection and statistical validation of the model indicated that the diurnal litter and duff moisture dynamics could be predicted reasonably. The model can easily be adapted for other similar fuel types in the Mediterranean region.
Keywords
Fuel Moisture Content, Modeling, Drying Rate, Vapor Pressure Deficit
Authors’ Info
Authors’ address
Kadir Alperen Coskuner 0000-0001-5249-1604
Yetkin Usta 0000-0002-0504-6417
Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)
Artvin Coruh University, Faculty of Forestry, 08000 Artvin (Turkey)
Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Science, 61080 Trabzon (Turkey)
Istanbul University, Faculty of Forestry, 34100 Istanbul (Turkey)
Corresponding author
Paper Info
Citation
Bilgili E, Coskuner KA, Usta Y, Saglam B, Kucuk O, Berber T, Goltas M (2019). Diurnal surface fuel moisture prediction model for Calabrian pine stands in Turkey. iForest 12: 262-271. - doi: 10.3832/ifor2870-012
Academic Editor
Davide Ascoli
Paper history
Received: May 29, 2018
Accepted: Feb 27, 2019
First online: May 03, 2019
Publication Date: Jun 30, 2019
Publication Time: 2.17 months
Copyright Information
© SISEF - The Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology 2019
Open Access
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial 4.0 International (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
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