*

Potential impacts of regional climate change on site productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China

Chenchen Shen (1-2-3), Xiangdong Lei (3)   , Hongyu Liu (3), Lily Wang (1), Wanjun Liang (4)

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 8, Issue 5, Pages 642-651 (2015)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor1203-007
Published: Mar 02, 2015 - Copyright © 2015 SISEF

Research Articles


Climate change is expected to substantially affect forest site productivity. However, its effects may vary depending on the climate scenario, region and tree species. We chose Larix olgensis in northeast China to investigate the responses of forest site productivity to regional climate change using a generalized additive model (GAM). Based on site index data and climate variables from 335 townships across the Jilin Province, we developed a climate-sensitive forest site index model, which accounted for 72.9% of the variation in the site index at the referred age of 20 (SI20). Our results indicated that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. The geographic location, mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation and mean temperature differential were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. We predict that the change of mean SI20 would vary from 0.3 m to -0.8 m (2.2% to -5.9%) by 2050 and from 0.5 m to -1.6 m (3.7% to -11.8%) by 2070 under three BC-RCP scenarios with rising temperature and increasing precipitation. Our study suggests that climate is an important factor affecting forest site productivity. Future climate changes could affect the forest site productivity both positively and negatively for Larix olgensis in northeast China. The relationship between climate and forest site productivity has strong implications for adaptive forest management and needs to be considered in forest management planning under future climate change.

  Keywords


Site Productivity, Climate Change, Potential Impacts, Larix Olgensis

Authors’ address

(1)
Chenchen Shen
Lily Wang
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences 86, 100101 Beijing (China)
(2)
Chenchen Shen
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences 86, 100049 Beijing (China)
(3)
Chenchen Shen
Xiangdong Lei
Hongyu Liu
Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry 86, 100091 Beijing (China)
(4)
Wanjun Liang
Jilin Academy of Forestry 86, 130033 Changchun (China)

Corresponding author

 
Xiangdong Lei
xdlei@ifrit.ac.cn

Citation

Shen C, Lei X, Liu H, Wang L, Liang W (2015). Potential impacts of regional climate change on site productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China. iForest 8: 642-651. - doi: 10.3832/ifor1203-007

Academic Editor

Giorgio Matteucci

Paper history

Received: Dec 14, 2013
Accepted: Oct 28, 2014

First online: Mar 02, 2015
Publication Date: Oct 01, 2015
Publication Time: 4.17 months

Breakdown by View Type

(Waiting for server response...)

Article Usage

Total Article Views: 20865
(from publication date up to now)

Breakdown by View Type
HTML Page Views: 8403
Abstract Page Views: 321
PDF Downloads: 11480
Citation/Reference Downloads: 57
XML Downloads: 604

Web Metrics
Days since publication: 1722
Overall contacts: 20865
Avg. contacts per week: 84.82

Article Citations

Article citations are based on data periodically collected from the Clarivate Web of Science web site
(last update: Aug 2019)

Total number of cites (since 2015): 5
Average cites per year: 1.00

 

Publication Metrics

by Dimensions ©

Articles citing this article

List of the papers citing this article based on CrossRef Cited-by.

 
(1)
Aertsen W, Kint V, Van Orshoven J, Ozkan K, Muys B (2010)
Comparison and ranking of different modelling techniques for prediction of site index in Mediterranean mountain forests. Ecological Modeling 221: 1119-1130.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(2)
Aertsen W, Kint V, Van Orshoven J, Muys B (2011)
Evaluation of modelling techniques for forest site productivity prediction in contrasting ecoregions using stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA). Environmental Modeling and Software 26: 929-937.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(3)
Albert M, Schmidt M (2009)
Climatic-sensitive modeling of site-productivity relationships for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). Forest Ecology and Management 259: 739-749.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(4)
Afif-khouri E, Álvarez-Álvarez P, Fernández-López MJ, Oliveira-Prendes JA, Cámara-Obregón A (2011)
Influence of climate, edaphic factors and tree nutrition on site index of chestnut coppice stands in north-west Spain. Forestry 84: 385-396.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(5)
Austin MP (2002)
Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modeling. Ecological Modeling 157: 101-118.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(6)
Badeau V, Dupouey JL, Becker M, Picard JF (1995)
Long-term growth trends of Fagus sylvatica L. in northeastern France: a comparison between high and low density stands. Acta Oecologica 16: 571-583.
Online | Gscholar
(7)
Bontemps JD, Herve JC, Dhote JF (2009)
Long-term changes in forest productivity: a consistent assessment in even-aged stands. Forest Science 55: 549-564.
Online | Gscholar
(8)
Bravo-Oviedo A, Del Río M, Montero G (2007)
Geographic variation and parameter assessment in generalized algebraic difference site index modeling. Forest Ecology and Management 247: 107-119.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(9)
Bravo-Oviedo A, Gallardo-Andrés C, Del Río M, Montero G (2010)
Regional changes of Pinus pinaster site index in Spain using a climate-based dominant height model. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40: 2036-2048.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(10)
Bravo-Oviedo A, Roig S, Bravo F, Montero G, Del Río M (2011)
Environmental variability and its relationship to site index in Mediterranean maritime pine. Forest Systems 20: 50-64.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(11)
Carmean WH (1975)
Forest site quality evaluation in the United States. Academic Press, USA, vol. 27, pp. 209-267.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(12)
Charru M, Seynave I, Morneau F (2010)
Recent changes in forest productivity: an analysis of national forest inventory data for common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in north-eastern France. Forest Ecology and Management 260: 864-874.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(13)
Chen HYH, Krestov PV, Klinka K (2002)
Trembling aspen site index in relation to environmental measures of site quality at two spatial scales. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32: 112-119.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(14)
Chiang JM, Iverson LR, Prasad AM, Brown KJ (2008)
Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production. Journal of Integrative Plant Biology 50: 1426-1439.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(15)
Clark M (2013)
Generalized additive models: getting started with additive models in R. Center for Social Research, University of North Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA, pp. 13.
Gscholar
(16)
CMDSSS (2011)
China meteorological data sharing service system. Web site. [in Chinese]
Online | Gscholar
(17)
Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (1989)
Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 25-26.
Online | Gscholar
(18)
Coops NC, Hember RA, Waring RH (2010)
Assessing the impact of current and projected climates on Douglas-fir productivity in British Columbia, Canada, using a process-based model (3-PG). Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40: 511-524.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(19)
Frescino TS, Edwards TCJ, Moisen GG (2001)
Modeling spatially explicit forest structural attributes using generalized additive models. Journal of Vegatation Science 12: 15-26.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(20)
Fontes L, Bontemps JD, Bugmann H, Van Oijen M, Gracia C, Kramer K, Lindner M, Rötzer T, Skovsgaard JP (2010)
Models for supporting forest management in a changing environment. Forest Systems 19: 8-29.
Online | Gscholar
(21)
Hamel B, Bélanger N, Paré D (2004)
Productivity of black spruce and Jack pine stands in Quebec as related to climate, site biological features and soil properties. Forest Ecology and Management 191: 239-251.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(22)
Hastie T (1990)
R: generalized additive models. Chapman & Hall, London, UK, pp. 3-4.
Gscholar
(23)
Hutchinson MF (2006)
ANUSPIN version 4.36 user guide. The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia, pp. 2-13.
Gscholar
(24)
IPCC (2007)
Summary for Policymakers. In: “Climate Change 2007: Contribution of Working Group to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 12-16.
Gscholar
(25)
Johnson M, Williamson T (2005)
Climate change implications for stand yields and soil expectation valves: a northern Saskatchewan case study. The Forestry Chronicle 81: 683-690.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(26)
Kellomäki S, Peltola H, Nuutinen T, Korhonen KT, Strandman H (2008)
Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management. Biological Sciences 363: 2339-2349.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(27)
Kirilenko AP, Sedjo RA (2007)
Climate change impacts on forestry. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104: 19697-19702.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(28)
Kirschabum MF, Watt MS, Tait A, Ausseil AGE (2012)
Future wood productivity of Pinus radiata in New Zealand under expected climatic changes. Global Change Biology 18: 1342-1356.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(29)
Latta G, Temesgen H, Barrett T (2009)
Mapping and imputing potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests using climate variables. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 39: 1197-1207.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(30)
Li F (2006)
The response of distribution and NPP of Larix gemelinii forest to climate change. Master thesis, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China, pp. 36. [in Chinese]
Gscholar
(31)
Liang WJ, Wang XC, Liu FJ (1999)
Site index of main species in Jilin Province. Jilin Forest Science and Technology 143: 1-5. [In Chinese with English abstract]
Gscholar
(32)
Loustau D, Bosc A, Colin A, Ogée J, Davi H, François C, Dufrêne E, Déqué M, Cloppet E, Arrouays D, Le Bas C, Saby N, Pignard G, Hamza N, Granier A, Bréda N, Ciais P, Viovy N, Delage F (2005)
Modeling climate change effects on the potential production of French plains forests at the sub-regional level. Tree Physiology 25: 813-823.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(33)
Lutz DA, Shugart HH, White MA (2013)
Sensitivity of Russian forest timber harvest and carbon storage to temperature increase. Forestry 86: 283-293.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(34)
Mäkelä A, Del Río M, Hynynen J, Reyer C, Soares P, Van Oijen M, Tomé M (2012)
Using stand-scale forest models for estimating indicators of sustainable forest management. Forest Ecology and Management 285: 164-178.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(35)
Medlyn BE, Duursma RA, Zeppel MJB (2011)
Forest productivity under climate change: a checklist for evaluating model studies. Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2: 332-355.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(36)
Meng XY (2006)
Forest measurement (3rd edn). China Forestry Press, Beijing, China, pp. 106-111. [in Chinese]
Gscholar
(37)
Messaoud Y, Chen HYH (2011)
The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment. PLOS One 6: e14691.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(38)
McKenney D, Pedlar J (2003)
Spatial models of site index based on climate and soil properties for two boreal tree species in Ontario, Canada. Forest Ecology and Management 175: 497-507.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(39)
Monserud RA, Rehfeldt GE (1990)
Genetic and environmental components of variation of site index in inland Douglas-Fir. Forest Science 36: 1-9.
Online | Gscholar
(40)
Monserud RA, Huang SM, Yang YQ (2006)
Predicting lodgepole pine site index from climatic parameters in Alberta. The Forest Chronicle 82: 562-571.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(41)
Monserud RA, Yang YQ, Huang SM, Tchebakova N (2008)
Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38: 343-352.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(42)
Moss R, Babiker M, Brinkman S, Calvo E, Carter T, Edmonds J, Elgizouli I, Emori S, Erda L, Hibbard KA, Jones R, Kainuma M, Kelleher J, Lamarque JF, Manning M, Mathews B, Meehl J, Meyer L, Mitchell J, Nakicenovic N, O’Neill B, Pcihs R, Riahi K, Rose S, Runci P, Stouffer R, Van Vuuren D, Weyant J, Wilbanks T, Van Ypersele JP, Zurek M (2008)
Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies. IPCC Expert Meeting Report on New Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Noordwijkerhout, the Netherlands, pp. 132.
Gscholar
(43)
Nigh G, Ying CC, Qian H (2004)
Climate and productivity of major conifer species in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. Forest Science 50: 659-671.
Online | Gscholar
(44)
Nigh G (2010)
A closer look at site index - biogeo-climatic site series correlations: Douglas-fir in the Coaster Hemlock Zone, xm2 variant, 01 site series. The Forest Chronicle 86: 477-483.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(45)
Nothdurft A, Wolf T, Ringeler A, Böhner J, Saborowski J (2012)
Spatio-temporal prediction of site index based on forest inventories and climate change scenarios. Forest Ecology and Management 279: 97-111.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(46)
Ollinger SV, Goodale CL, Hayhoe K, Jenkins JP (2008)
Potential effects of climate change and rising CO2 on ecosystem processes in northeastern US forests. Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change 13: 467-485.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(47)
Peng CH, Jiang H, Apps MJ, Zhang YL (2002)
Effects of harvesting regimes on carbon and nitrogen dynamics of boreal forests in central Canada: a process simulation. Ecological Modeling 155: 177-189.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(48)
Peng CH, Zhou XL, Zhao SQ, Wang XP, Zhu B, Piao SL, Fang JY (2009)
Quantifying the response of forest carbon balance to future climate change in northeastern China: model validation and prediction. Global Planet Change 66: 179-194.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(49)
Pinno BD, Paré D, Guindon L, Bélanger N (2009)
Predicting productivity of trembling aspen in the Boreal shield ecozone of Quebec using different sources of soil and site information. Forest Ecology and Management 257: 782-789.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(50)
Qu JH, Wang J, Sun L (2008)
Prediction of climate and utilizable precipitation change in northeast China using IPCC-AR4 models data. In: Proceedings of the conference “Climate Change at the Venue”. Bejing (China) 20-22 Nov 2008. The Chinese Meteorological Society, Bejing, China, pp. 341-351. [in Chinese with English abstract]
Gscholar
(51)
R Development Core Team (2007)
R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, pp. 1693.
Online | Gscholar
(52)
Skovsgaard JP, Vanclay JK (2008)
Forest site productivity: a review of the evolution of dendrometric concepts for even-aged stands. Forestry 81: 13-31.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(53)
Skovsgaard JP, Vanclay JK (2013)
Forest site productivity: a review of spatial and temporal variability in natural site conditions. Forestry 86: 305-315.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(54)
SFA (2008)
National forest resources statistics (2004-2008). State Forestry Administration, Bejing, China, pp. 233. [in Chinese]
Gscholar
(55)
Tang SZ, Lang KJ, Li HK (2009)
Statistical and mathematical models of biological computing (ForStat user guide). Science Press, Beijing, pp. 295-308. [in Chinese]
Gscholar
(56)
Tao FL, Zhang Z (2010)
Dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems structure and function to climate change in China. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: 1-20.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(57)
Valentine HT (1997)
Height growth, site index, and carbon metabolism. Silva Fennica 31: 51-263.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(58)
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF, Masui T, Meinshausen Malte, Nahicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK (2011)
The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climate Change 109: 5-31.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(59)
Weiskittel AR, Crookston NL, Radtke PJ (2011)
Linking climate, gross primary productivity and site index across forests of the western United States. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 41: 1710-1721.
CrossRef | Gscholar
(60)
Wood S (2006)
Generalized additive models: an introduction with R. Chapman & Hall, CRC, Boca Raton, FL, USA, pp. 8-15.
Gscholar
(61)
Zhao ZC, Luo Y (2007)
Projections of climate change over northeast China for the 21st century. Journal of Meteorology Environment 23: 1-4. [in Chinese with English abstract]
Gscholar
 

This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website