iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry


Outlook of the European forest-based sector: forest growth, harvest demand, wood-product markets, and forest carbon dynamics implications

Ragnar Jonsson (1)   , Viorel NB Blujdea (2), Giulia Fiorese (1), Roberto Pilli (1), Francesca Rinaldi (1), Claudia Baranzelli (3), Andrea Camia (1)

iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Volume 11, Issue 2, Pages 315-328 (2018)
doi: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor2636-011
Published: Apr 18, 2018 - Copyright © 2018 SISEF

Research Articles

A comprehensive assessment of European forest-based biomass harvest potentials, their future utilization and implications on international wood product markets and forest carbon dynamics requires the capability to model forest resource development as well as global markets for wood-based commodities with sufficient geographical and product detail and, most importantly, their interactions. To this aim, we apply a model framework fully integrating a European forest resource model and a global economic forest sector model. In a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, European Union harvests increase seven percent by 2030 compared to past levels (485 million m3 on 2000-2012 average and 517 million m3 in 2030). The subsequent annual carbon stock change is a ten percent reduction by 2030 compared to 2000-2012 average (equal to 119.3 Tg C yr-1), corresponding to decreasing carbon-dioxide removal by the European forests. A second, high mobilization scenario (HM), characterized by the full utilization of the potential wood supply and a doubling of EU wood pellets consumption, was designed to explore potential impacts on forest carbon dynamics and international wood product markets under intensive exploitation of biomass resources. In the HM scenario, harvest increases by 55% (754 million m3 in 2030) compared to the BaU scenario. Fuelwood accounts for this increase in harvest levels as overall competition effects from increased wood pellets consumption outweighs synergies for material uses of wood, resulting in slightly reduced harvests of industrial roundwood. As expected, this increasing harvest level would significantly impair carbon-dioxide forest sequestration from the atmosphere in the medium term (-83% in 2030, compared to 2000-2012 average).


Biomass, Carbon Stock Change, Forest, Fuelwood, Harvest, Wood-based Products

Authors’ address

Ragnar Jonsson
Giulia Fiorese
Roberto Pilli
Francesca Rinaldi
Andrea Camia
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate D: Sustainable Resources, Bioeconomy Unit, v. E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Varese (Italy)
Viorel NB Blujdea
Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering, Transilvania University of Brasov, Sirul Beethoven 1, 500123 Brasov (Romania)
Claudia Baranzelli
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate B: Growth & Innovation, Territorial Development Unit, v. E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Varese (Italy)

Corresponding author

Ragnar Jonsson


Jonsson R, Blujdea VNB, Fiorese G, Pilli R, Rinaldi F, Baranzelli C, Camia A (2018). Outlook of the European forest-based sector: forest growth, harvest demand, wood-product markets, and forest carbon dynamics implications. iForest 11: 315-328. - doi: 10.3832/ifor2636-011

Academic Editor

Piermaria Corona

Paper history

Received: Sep 19, 2017
Accepted: Mar 21, 2018

First online: Apr 18, 2018
Publication Date: Apr 30, 2018
Publication Time: 0.93 months

Breakdown by View Type

(Waiting for server response...)

Article Usage

Total Article Views: 43783
(from publication date up to now)

Breakdown by View Type
HTML Page Views: 34432
Abstract Page Views: 4238
PDF Downloads: 4443
Citation/Reference Downloads: 27
XML Downloads: 643

Web Metrics
Days since publication: 2280
Overall contacts: 43783
Avg. contacts per week: 134.42

Article Citations

Article citations are based on data periodically collected from the Clarivate Web of Science web site
(last update: Feb 2023)

Total number of cites (since 2018): 13
Average cites per year: 2.17


Publication Metrics

by Dimensions ©

Articles citing this article

List of the papers citing this article based on CrossRef Cited-by.

Anttila P, Karjalainen T, Asikainen A (2009)
Global potential of modern fuelwood. Working Papers of the Finnish Forest Research Institute 118, Vantaa, Finland, pp. 118.
Online | Gscholar
Asikainen A, Liiri H, Peltola S, Karjalainen Timo Laitila J (2008)
Forest energy potential in Europe (EU 27). Working Papers no. 69, Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu, Finland, pp. 33.
Online | Gscholar
Aulisi A, Sauer A, Wellington F (2008)
Trees in the greenhouse - Why climate change is transforming the forest products business. World resources institute, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 74.
Online | Gscholar
Baranzelli C, Jacobs C, Batista E, Silva F, Perpiña Castillo C, Lopes Barbosa A, Arevalo Torres J, Lavalle C (2015)
The Reference Scenario in the LUISA platform - Updated configuration 2014, towards a common baseline scenario for EC impact assessment procedures. EUR 27019, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 45.
Buongiorno J, Zhu S, Zhang D, Turner J, Tomberlin D (2003)
The global forest products model: structure, estimation, and applications. Academic Press, San Diego, CA, USA, pp. 300.
Online | Gscholar
Buongiorno J, Raunikar R, Zhu S (2011)
Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: an application of the global forest products model. Journal of Forest Economics 17 (2): 214-229.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Duinker PN, Greig LA (2007)
Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: improving explorations of the future. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 27: 206-219.
CrossRef | Gscholar
EEA (2006)
How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment? EEA report 7, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp. 67.
EEA (2007)
Environmentally compatible bio-energy potential from European forests. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp. 39.
Ericsson K, Nilsson LJ (2006)
Assessment of the potential biomass supply in Europe using a resource-focused approach. Biomass and Bioenergy 30: 1-15.
CrossRef | Gscholar
European Commission (2013)
A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest-based sector. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the regions, Brussels, Belgium, pp. 17.
European Commission (2014)
A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the regions, Brussels, Belgium, pp. 18.
European Commission (2016a)
EU Reference Scenario 2016. Energy, transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050. European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 221.
European Commission (2016b)
Environmental implications of increased reliance of the EU on biomass from the South East US. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 357.
Supply, transformation and consumption of renewable energies - annual data (nrg_107a). Web site.
Online | Gscholar
FAOSTAT (2017)
Forestry production and trade. Web site.
Online | Gscholar
Fiorese G, Baranzelli C, Ciaian P, Grassi G, Hiederer R, Kitous A, Lavalle C, Barek R, Russ H, Pilli R, Salputra G, Van Doorslaer B (2014)
Analysis and modelling of energy, transport and climate change scenarios: future GHG emission from agriculture and forestry. JRC Technical Reports, European Commission, Ispra, Italy, pp. 174.
Fonseca M (2010)
Forest product conversion factors for the UNECE region. Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion Paper 49, UNECE/FAO, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 34.
Forest Europe (2015)
State of Europe’s Forests 2015. Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, Liaison Unit, Madrid, Spain, pp. 344.
Online | Gscholar
Forsell N, Korouso A, Havlík P, Valin H, Lauri P, Gusti M, Kindermann G, Obersteiner M (2016)
Study on impacts on resource efficiency of future EU demand for bioenergy. Task 3: Modelling of impacts of an increased EU bioenergy demand on biomass production, use and prices. Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 43.
Online | Gscholar
Frank S, Böttcher H, Gusti M, Havlík P, Klassen G, Kindermann G, Obersteiner M (2016)
Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030. Climatic Change 138: 253-266.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Grassi G, Pilli R (2017)
Projecting the EU forest carbon net emissions in line with the “continuation of forest management”: the JRC method. Publication Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 24.
Online | Gscholar
IEA Bioenergy Task 40 (2011)
Global wood pellet industry market and trade study. Web site.
Online | Gscholar
Ince PJ, Kramp A, Skog KE (2012)
Evaluating economic impacts of expanded global wood energy consumption with the USFPM/GFPM model. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics 60: 211-237.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Jasinevičius G, Lindner M, Verkerk PJ, Aleinikovas M (2017)
Assessing impacts of wood utilisation scenarios for a Lithuanian bioeconomy: impacts on carbon in forests and harvested wood products and on the socio-economic performance of the forest-based sector. Forests 8 (4): 133.
Online | Gscholar
Johnston CMT, Van Kooten GC (2016)
Global trade impacts of increasing Europe’s bioenergy demand. Journal of Forest Economics 23: 27-44.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Jonsson R (2012)
Econometric modelling and projections of wood products demand, supply and trade in Europe, Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion Paper 59, UNECE/FAO, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 192.
Jonsson R (2013)
How to cope with changing demand conditions - The Swedish forest sector as a case study: an analysis of major drivers of change in the use of wood resources. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 43: 405-418.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Jonsson R, Rinaldi F, San-Miguel-Ayanz J (2015)
The global forest trade model - GFTM. JRC Technical Reports, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, pp. 45.
Online | Gscholar
Jonsson R, Rinaldi F, Räty M, Sallnäs O (2016)
Integrating forest-based industry and forest resource modeling. iForest 9: 743-750.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Jonsson R, Rinaldi F (2017)
The impact on global wood-product markets of increasing consumption of wood pellets within the European Union. Energy 133: 864-878.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Kallio AMI, Moiseyev A, Solberg B (2004)
The global forest sector model EFI-GTM - The Model Structure, EFI Internal Report 15, European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland, pp. 24.
Kallio M, Dykstra DP, Binkley CS (1987)
The global forest sector: an analytical perspective. John Wiley and Sons, New York, USA, pp. 706.
Online | Gscholar
Kurz WA, Dymond CC, White TM, Stinson G, Shaw CH, Rampley GJ, Smyth C, Simpson BN, Neilson ET, Trofymow JA, Metsaranta J, Apps MJ (2009)
CBM-CFS3: a model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards. Ecological Modelling 220: 480-504.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Kurz WA, Smyth C, Lemprière T (2016)
Climate change mitigation through forest sector activities: principles, potential and priorities 1. Unasylva 67 (246): 61-7.
Online | Gscholar
Lauri P, Kallio AMI, Schneider UA (2012)
Price of CO2 emissions and use of wood in Europe. Forest Policy and Economics 15: 123-131.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Lauri P, Havlík P, Kindermann G, Forsell N, Böttcher H, Obersteiner M (2014)
Woody biomass energy potential in 2050. Energy Policy 66: 19-31.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Moiseyev A, Solberg B, Kallio AMI (2014)
The impact of subsidies and carbon pricing on the wood biomass use for energy in the EU. Energy 76: 161-167.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Nabuurs G-J, Pussinen A, Van Brusselen J, Schelhaas M (2007)
Future harvesting pressure on European forests. European Journal of Forest Research 126: 391-400.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Nabuurs G-J, Lindner M, Verkerk PJ, Gunia K, Deda P, Michalak R, Grassi G (2013)
First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass. Nature Climate Change 3: 792-796.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Pilli R, Grassi G, Cescatti A (2014)
Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy). Forest@ 11: 20-35. [in Italian with English summary]
CrossRef | Gscholar
Pilli R, Fiorese G, Grassi G (2015)
EU mitigation potential of harvested wood products. Carbon Balance and Management 10 (1): 441.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Pilli R, Grassi G, Kurz WA, Viñas RA, Guerrero N (2016a)
Modelling forest carbon stock changes as affected by harvest and natural disturbances. I. Comparison of model results for forest management with EU countries’ estimates. Carbon Balance and Management 11: 5.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Pilli R, Grassi G, Kurz WA, Moris JV, Viñas RA (2016b)
Modelling forest carbon stock changes as affected by harvest and natural disturbances. II. EU-level analysis including land-use changes. Carbon Balance and Management 11: 20.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Pilli R, Grassi G, Kurz W, Fiorese G, Cescatti A (2017)
The European forest sector: past and future carbon budget and fluxes under different management scenarios. Biogeosciences 14: 2387-2405.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Postma TJ, Liebl F (2005)
How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool? Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72: 161-173.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Pra A, Pettenella D (2016)
Consumption of wood biomass for energy in Italy: a strategic role based on weak knowledge. Italian Journal of Forest and Mountain Environments 71 (1): 49-92.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Raunikar R, Buongiorno J, Turner JA, Zhu S (2010)
Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Forest Policy and Economics 12: 48-56.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Rüter S, Werner F, Forsell N, Prins C, Vial E, Levet AL (2016)
ClimWood2030 - Climate benefits of material substitution by forest biomass and harvested wood products: perspective 2030. Final report, Thünen Report no. 42, Braunschweig, Germany, pp. 148.
Saal U (2010)
Industrial wood residues. In: “EUwood - Methodology Report” (Mantau U ed). Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany, pp. 124-145.
Samuelson PA (1952)
Spatial price equilibrium and linear programming. American Economic Review 42: 283-303.
Online | Gscholar
Sikkema R, Steiner M, Junginger M, Hiegl W, Hansen MT, Faaij A (2011)
The European wood pellet markets: current status and prospects for 2020. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 5: 250-278.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Smeets E, Faaij A (2007)
Bioenergy potentials from forestry in 2050. Climate Change 81: 355-390.
CrossRef | Gscholar
Statista (2017)
Global wood pellet market in 2010 and 2012 with projections through 2025, by major region. Web site.
Online | Gscholar
UN (2011)
The European forest sector outlook study II. Geneva Timber and Forest Study Paper no. 28, UNECE/FAO, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 111.
Van Der Heijden K (1996)
Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Wiley, New York, USA, pp. 382.
Verkerk P, Anttila P, Eggers J, Lindner M, Asikainen A (2011)
The realizable potential supply of woody biomass from forests in the European Union. Forest Ecology and Management 261: 2007-2015.
CrossRef | Gscholar

This website uses cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. More info